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Yea - Outperform Projections
Justin Jackson, LAC 9.23 - Part of this is intuition, but Jacksonville has been one of the worst run defenses the last few weeks giving up huge fantasy games to Joe Mixon and D'Andre Swift. On that note, I believe Jackson is the starter this week over Joshua Kelley and with Austin Ekeler out. I expect him to ball out.
Justin Herbert, LAC 21.34 - When are we going to stop doubting Herbert this year? 28, 21, 31, 33. Those are his point totals this year. He is likely to have his full compliment of "weapons" save for Austin Ekeler and he's in a great matchup. What's not to love.
Mike Williams, LAC 10.42 - Again, a lot of these are made on intuition, but I really liked what I saw on MNF a couple weeks ago before the Chargers' bye week. I know that Keenan Allen was out during that game and he is likely to be back this week, but we often forget how talented this guy is. He was a top 10 pick, and, as a former owner of his, Mike Williams has these flashes. Now, whether he was limited by being with Phillips Rivers the last few years or more by injuries, the world will never know. What I did see is a fast, big-play, down-the-field receiver that had a good connection with a young, talented, and progressing quarterback. Give me more of that.
Ronald Jones, TB 13.92 - If I'm the only banging the drum on the Ronald Jones bandwagon the rest of the season, so be it, but, to me, he has clearly cemented himself as the #1 on this team as well as a borderline RB1 the rest of the season. If you then throw out that LV gave up big weeks to CMC, Kamara, Rex Burkhead and Sony Michel, and then even Devin Singletary, why isn't this guy projected for more? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.
Tee Higgins, CIN 11.02 - Higgins has not had less than 7 targets over the last four games, his production has increased in each of those weeks, and the Bengals are having to throw more than probably 25 other teams in a given week due to how bad their defense has been. I just like his trajectory on this one, and we could see him finally crack the endzone for a huge performance on Sunday.
Aaron Jones, GB 18.01 - Green Bay got embarrassed last Sunday on the road and in the trenches. They couldn't run the ball, and Aaron Jones drastically underperformed his projection. In a game where the Packers' rock-solid All-Pro left tackle may be out and going against a team that has given up monster games to CEH, James Connor, Dalvin Cook, and over 200 yards last week to King Henry, give me the Packers giving tons of carries to RBs this week. The Packers want to reestablish the run in a big way here, and Jones will be the heavy beneficiary.
DeAndre Hopkins, AZ 17.25 - There are not many WRs that have had poor games against Seattle this season, and, like most Seahawks games, I expect this one to once again be a shootout. Despite being the highest projected WR this weekend and how bad I thought Kyler Murray looked throwing the ball on MNF, I love Hopkins to have a huge game here for a desperate Cardinals team trying to prove their legitimacy in the NFC West.
D'Andre Swift, DET 9.03 - After I got burned last week by Minnesota's weirdly incapable running game, you would think I would stay away from the hot pick I made on the pod last weekend. But, here's the thing, while the Falcons are giving up much to RBs on the ground, where they're extremely vulnerable to RBs through the air. Chris Carson caught 2 TDs opening weekend, Aaron Jones had a TD catch against them, and Mike Davis was valuable through the air. Who is the Lions' primary pass-catching RB? Swift. Start him and thank me later.
Phillip Lindsay, DEN 8.82 - I started him for a vacant owner last week after the news about Melvin Gordon came out, and I was rewarded with a 100-yard performance. While I don't think much of the Denver offense right now and Drew Lock was shaky last weekend, KC does give up quite a bit of yardage on the ground. My guess here is that Lindsay falls into the endzone at least once and proves he is undervalued this week given that I don't know if Gordon will even be with the team again.
Hunter Henry, LAC 9.16 - I don't have a great statistical argument for Hunter Henry this week other than he does receive a good amount of targets in this offense with a good quarterback in a good matchup, and you could honestly do much worse at TE this week. I think he's possibly a top 3 TE play this weekend.
Nay - Bad Moon Rising
Josh Jacobs, LV 14.08 - My eye test has said that Jacobs is not running well or effectively. He's been extremely TD dependent in the two really great weeks he has had. His saving grace at times is the mad volume that the Raiders give him, but that won't save him against the best run defense in football. I'd honestly consider sitting him if you really do have better options. I'm not sure he'll crack 10 points this week.
Joe Mixon, CIN 15.29 - He's coming off a foot injury that may limit him if he even does play, and Cincinnati is going to be throwing a lot like they had to the first game against the Browns. I see his touches going down due to game script, and his effectiveness decreasing due to injury. Even if he scores a TD, I would be surprised to see him get to 15 pts this week.
Darrell Henderson, Jr, LAR 11.64 - Do you have any idea who the primary back is in LA? The way the season has gone as well as last week would tell you its Henderson, but I could just as easily see Akers or Brown have more carries. Throw in that the Bears D has been ok to RBs the last couple weeks save for Ronald Jones, and I just have a hunch that Henderson underperforms this already low projection.
George Kittle, SF 13.99 - Kittle has had two monster games out of the four he has played, but Belichick loves to take away the primary target in an offense and the Patriots have yet to give up 10 points to opposing TEs including Travis Kelce. You're obviously starting him, but don't expect him to help bail out your team like he did last week.
Darren Waller, 11.45 - Waller has never been a big TD guy so all of his value comes from a huge volume of targets and yards. TB has been top 10 against TEs so far this season, and I would expect that defense to control the game once they have bottled up Josh Jacobs.
Josh Allen, BUF 24.81 - Simply put, because the Jets are so bad, a lot of teams have the game on cruise control, and stop throwing the ball. During 4 of the first 6 weeks, the Jets have only given up less than 17 points to opposing quarterbacks, and it has nothing to do with their ability to defend anything. While the Bills aren't a great running team right now, I think this could be a week to try to get up big early then work in more touches for Singletary and Zach Moss.
Deshaun Watson, HOU 26.4 - This seems like a surprising call for a guy that has given up a good last three weeks and two huge games over the last two. Yet, I think this is a statement game for GB after they got whipped in the last three quarters against TB. That's before you mention that GB has actually held opposing quarterbacks under 20 pts in three of five weeks with the exceptions being Drew Brees dumping the ball off to Kamara who GB couldn't tackle and garbage time heroics for Kirk Cousins. Last point, Watson is running less than he has before this season, and he hasn't run into the endzone since week 1. Thus, his floor isn't as high as it used to be, and I think he has a frustrating week again for fantasy owners.
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF 20.35 - He's going against a defensive jedi master and the one opposing coach who would know him best. Given that he barely is throwing the ball beyond 10 yards, look for the Patriots to sit on everything and muck up this game.
Andy Dalton, DAL 22.06 - What from MNF football would tell you that Dalton is capable of getting the ball out quickly with that paper mache offensive line going against a pretty good defensive line? There's simply no way that the Cowboys are putting up enough points in this game to justify this number.
Patrick Mahomes, KC 27.53 - This is a bit of a gut call here that might make me look silly come Monday, but Mahomes has only finished three of six weeks above this point total. While Denver has given up some very good opposing quarterback numbers, something just tells me that KC isn't going to be able to explode on offense this week for Mahomes to get a number this high.