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Yea - Outperform Projections
Justin Jefferson, MIN 12.2 - Part of this is how the first game played out that the Packers softened up in garbage time, and that I believe he won't be drawing Jaire Alexander most of the game if not all. I think he is heavily targeted, and that would suggest he has another huge game coming like the last several weeks would indicate.
Brandon Aiyuk, SF 10.8 - He had a big breakout game last week before Deebo Samuel went out, and now he looks to get an increase in targets as well as be the jet sweep action man to replace Deebo against one of the premier matchup defenses in Seattle. I think he well outperforms his number this week.
AJ Brown, TEN 13.7 - Brown has been outstanding coming back from his injury and has outperformed this number in the three weeks he has been back plus he draws a great matchup in Cincinnati with a likely great game script.
Baker Mayfield, CLE 20.8 - Oddly enough, Baker has actually played better without OBJ on the field in his 3 years, and he is now gone for the rest of the year. In fact, his 5 TD game from last week may only be the beginning in a great matchup vs. LV.
Ryan Tannehill, TEN 21.7 - Don't outthink this one. Tannehill has been great so far this year, and Cincinnati is a great matchup to draw after the tough PIT game.
Richard Rodgers, PHI 7.8 - Goedert and Ertz are likely out, Rodgers had a big week against the Giants last week, and Dallas is terrible. Spot start or stream here.
Aaron Rodgers, GB 25.3 - He has been great this season, and he loves carving up division opponents. Minnesota has allowed more than this 4 out of 6 times and Rodgers has scored more than this 4 out of 6 times including when they played each other week 1.
Melvin Gordon III, DEN 12.0 - This has more to do with sheer volume as it doesn't sound like Phillip Lindsay is going to play. Also, LAC is beat up, and they just gave up a ton of points to James Robinson. I think he slightly exceeds this number.
Jerick McKinnon, SF 11.4 - I'm banking on Shanahan having no choice but to turn to the ironically solely healthy RB on the Niners this season instead of resting him like last week in a huge division matchup against Seattle that just gave up over 500 total yards of offense against the Cardinals last week.
Robert Tonyan, GB 6.5 - This is partly based on the Vikings' unusually strong Red Zone defense compared to the rest of their defense in addition to GB's terrible Red Zone offense so far this year. I expect GB to turn to their RZ target in this game to help sort out the issues and put this game away.
Nay - Bad Moon Rising
Ezekiel Elliott, DAL 16.4 - I know I have been extremely hard on Elliott this year and especially on the show, but you tell me to believe something other than my Lyin' Eyes this year. I don't think he looks explosive, and that line was bad before they started having to play their 3rd and 4th string. He's going to have a hard time getting 15 pts in a week the rest of the season without crazy volume. I see him in the same hole that Le'Veon Bell was in last season.
Mike Evans, TB 11.9 - Has been bad this year when he's not scoring TDs, and you may think his volume will increase with Godwin possibly being out. However, he draws the blanketing James Bradberry in this game, and I think this is a stay away from him game as I see him only getting 3 targets or less.
James Connor, PIT 15.8 - Baltimore's defense is much better than people think given that their only national appearance so far was against KC and they got torched by Mahomes that night. I think both PIT and BAL make statements defense this weekend in a low scoring slugfest that will be old school fun. Unfortunately, that probably means that this won't have a lot of fantasy points and especially to the RBs.
Myles Gaskin, MIA 14.6 - His volume has been crazy lately which has helped his numbers, but MIA is playing a rookie QB in his first start against Marcus Peters and Aaron Donald. Good luck moving the ball this week or Gaskin even coming close to this number.
Patrick Mahomes, KC 26.8 - This is similar to my take on Josh Allen last weekend. I think KC is going to go heavy on the run in a revenge game for Le'Veon Bell, and this thing is over early. Thus, Mahomes' passing numbers may not be as bad as last weekend, but they are likely to dip to more like 20 than his current 26.8 projection.
Mike Davis, CAR 16.9 - This has more to do with a seeming overuse of Davis in McCaffrey's absence as well as his downward trajectory lately. I expect this game to be back and forth in the passing game, and, unless Davis starts to be heavily used in that capacity again, I expect him to disappoint for the third straight week.
Devin Singletary, BUF 10.4 - He has been a disappointment all year, he's in a bad matchup, the guy behind him is healthy and getting a bigger workload. You tell me if you think he has any chance of meeting this number.
Adam Thielen, MIN 14.5 - He had a pretty big game in the first matchup in Week 1 with the Packers, so you might think this is a bit matchup proof. Not so, Jaire Alexander is turning into an elite corner that teams simply won't throw at, and I expect him to shadow Minnesota's best receiver. If he gets over 10 points, it will likely be in garbage time *if* the Packers are up big again.
Marquise Brown, BAL 12.0 - Cue up my thoughts above on BAL/PIT this weekend. This is an overconfident projection for a player who has yet to produce in a bad matchup that will include a bad game script. He's probably not cracking 10 pts in my estimate.
Mark Andrews, BAL 11.2 - Heavily TD dependent guy that likely won't get much value this week outside the RZ. As such, I don't think he breaks this number as I think both teams' fantasy value tanks this weekend.