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Yea - Outperform Projections
Ronald Jones, TB 11.3 (he's getting the bulk of the work in the running and passing game, he just put up 100 yards on the ground against the Bears, and he's going against GB's bad run D.)
DeVante Parker, MIA 11.0 (he's playing the Jets who just got torched in the second half by Nuk, and the Dolphins are hot right now.)
Jonnu Smith, TEN 9.2 (he's out produced this projection 3 out of 4 weeks, has become an elite option at TE, and has a good matchup. You tell me.)
Ryan Tannehill, TEN 20.8 (playing Houston, and he's become an elite option at QB. We need to start treating him like a QB1 with a good matchup.)
Stefon Diggs, BUF 14.9 (he's scored above this 3 of 5 weeks, has a good matchup against a team that had a terrible week last week. I think there's a good shot he hits 20 pts again this week.)
Jared Goff, LAR 19.1 (SF got lit up last weekend because of how banged up they are, and this is too few points to Goff's season average right now.)
Cooper Kupp, LAR 12.7 (Goff is going to throw to someone, and the Niners have a matchup disadvantage against the slot. Kupp could see double-digit targets here. Play the volume.)
Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA 23.1 (he's playing the Jets in one of the last games he may ever play; ball out my friend)
Damien Harris, NE 9.2 (he's going to get the primary work in a run first offense. If he ends up getting into the end zone he will well outperform this even in a so-so matchup)
Justin Jefferson, MIN 10.0 (he's coming off a disappointing week, but clearly has the talent against a terrible defense right now. Minnesota should cruise in this one, and take Thielen, Mattison, and Jefferson with them.)
Nay - Bad Moon Rising
Aaron Jones, GB 16.5 (a lot of points for a RB who is going against the best run defense over the last two years that has shut down CMC more than once)
David Montgomery, CHI 15.8 (hasn't met that more than once this season, and CAR is getting better)
Miles Sanders, PHI 16.7 (you're only projecting this high if he has a reasonable chance of getting in the end zone. Have you seen what BAL can do to everyone but the Chiefs?)
Matt Ryan, ATL 25.0 (the guy hasn't thrown a TD in 8 quarters, and is going against a D/ST that held Russ in check for most of the game)
Jonathan Taylor, IND 14.3 (the volume just isn't there, and Phillip Rivers is definitely not helping him any right now. 10 pts, maybe, but 14.3 is too many to project until I see it.)
George Kittle, SF 12.7 (I'm banking on the Rams having seen the tape of the Dolphins double covering Kittle last week, and trying to repeat that. He won't be shut out, but 12.7 is too much to expect here.)
Terry McLaurin, WSH 11.2 (he had a tough week last week in the rain as Washington couldn't snap the ball without Aaron Donald hitting their QB. Think it's going to get better? I'm not so sure by the toughness I saw from the Giants last weekend. He could get close to his projection, but instinct tells me no.)
Joe Mixon, CIN 15.9 (Does anyone expect Cincy to be good on offense against the Colts? This is going to be another ugly Indy game)
Odell Beckham, Jr, CLE 13.7 (this is a lot of respect to give a guy without a high rate of volume who might be COVID positive against a good PIT D. I'm saying under.)
Tom Brady, TB 25.6 (he's a different player when you get pressure, and GB has good to great pass rushers a few of which will be healthy coming off of the bye.)
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